Sacha Ismail
The Stop the War Coalition and its periphery on the UK left are crowing about polling that underlines war-weariness in Ukraine. But closer analysis reinforces what anyone seriously engaged with Ukrainians already knows, that weariness is not the same as willingness to surrender.
To state what should be obvious but the anti-Ukraine left has such trouble with, all or virtually all Ukrainians want and always have wanted the war to end as soon as possible – in a general sense. Within that however there are various positions.
At the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Gallup found that 73% of Ukrainians believed that “Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war”, while only 22% said “Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible”.
The reason Ukrainians haven’t been eager for negotiations is not some sort of irrational bloodthirstiness. It’s an overwhelming – rational – scepticism about what will result from negotiations without a significant military shift in favour of Ukraine, and of the current likelihood of the Russian regime sticking even to the terms of a bad peace deal (particularly after how previous deals turned out).
In 2023 Gallup’s figures had not changed very much. But in August-October 2024 they found that 52% wanted to negotiate to end the war as soon as possible, while only 38% still advocated simply fighting until victory.
The “Stop the War” left has been arguing for Ukraine to not so much negotiate as surrender since February 2022, when support for a straight fight till victory over any negotiations was at least 3:1 – so we should be clear their appeal to this new polling is entirely opportunistic. Still: what is going on?
The reality is that Ukraine would not have sustained its struggle – or indeed even survived Russia’s initial assault – without wide and deep popular support. The idea circulated in sections of the left that Ukrainians have been forced by the Western powers to fight against their will is in sharp contradiction with the realities of the last three years.
The nature of this war and the balance of forces are such that if a decisive section of the Ukrainian people want Ukraine to stop fighting, it will, very likely with some kind of Russian victory. It is not the job of internationalists and anti-imperialists to tell the Ukrainians give in, but to support their rights against Russian imperialism and support their fight as long as it is sustained.
A shift in opinion is not surprising considering how long the war has gone on and the costs it has imposed on the country – costs being disproportionately shouldered, under a deeply neoliberal capitalist government, by the working class; the weakness of the support Ukraine’s allies have given it; and the restrictions they have imposed on Ukraine. The Gallup poll was carried out as discussion mounted about the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
But let’s dig a little deeper into the results.
Rejecting “negotiations to end the war as soon as possible” in favour of fighting to victory is a pretty radical stance. This is reinforced by the fact that, in the 2024 poll, a very large majority (81%) still define “victory” as regaining all territories lost since 2014 including Crimea (though that figure has declined a bit).
Shifting towards openness to negotiations does not necessarily indicate – indeed for most is very unlikely to indicate – a desire for Ukraine to stop fighting regardless of what it means, ie something like the “Stop the War” position.
That is underscored by the fact that 38% of the 52% opting for the “negotiate” position reject any territorial concessions. 52% of the 52% believe Ukraine should be “open” to “some territorial concessions”. The polling doesn’t go into what level of concessions people would consider, but this is clearly quite a limited stance.
52% of 52% means that, whatever disagreements there are about negotiations, less than a quarter of Ukrainians (excluding don’t knows) say they’re open to any territorial concessions at all. About 2.5 times as many Ukrainians reject any concessions whatsoever.
It is all but certain that only a vanishingly small minority of Ukrainians agree with a “Stop the War”-type position.
Yet we hear mental and political gymnastics like this from the UK “Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament” (7 December), in opposition to the decision to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles: “The British government must listen to the people of Ukraine, who want an immediate end to their suffering through a peaceful, negotiated settlement.”
The idea most Ukrainians want less military aid from the UK and other governments – as opposed to a huge majority wanting more aid – is laughable.
Listen to Ukrainian socialist organisation Sotsialnyi Rukh (26 November): “To all ‘peace advocates’: it takes more than words to win a negotiation and no agreement is sealed forever; thus supplying weapons is not prolonging the war!”
“Instead of fake doves, listen to those who care enough to actually ask people on the ground about their concerns. Pressure Putin, not us… Strengthen Ukraine, with arms, diplomatic efforts, grants, and by raising the voices of our unions and civil society organisations.”
Support the Ukraine Solidarity Campaign, and this appeal supporting rescue workers near the frontline.